Method for calculating lives saved by nutritional improvement

Their method for calculating lives saved by nutritional improvement is based on the relationship M2 = M1 x e^{(R _ dWA)}

Where:

• M2 is the predicted mortality rate (per thousand live births) among children less than five years of age
• M1 is the current under-five mortality rate (per thousand live births)
• e equals 2.71828, the base of the natural logarithm
• R is the compound rate of change in child mortality for a given reduction in the prevalence of underweight, independent of other secular changes that influence child survival
• dWA is the change in the prevalence (%) of low weight-for-age (Z-score <-2) among children less than five years of age

M1 can be easily obtained from current data sets (for example, www.childinfo.org ).

dWA is estimated as the difference between the current prevalence (P1) and an expected or target prevalence (P2) of underweight.

R has been derived empirically by Pelletier and Frongillo (2003). The value of R varies by year (from 0.020 in 2000 to 0.025 in 2005). The value used here is that predicted for 2005, 0.025.

The number of lives saved or lost (L) as a result of a difference in nutrition can be calculated from the above using the relationship L = (n/1000) - (M1 - M2).

For this, an additional estimate of the total population under five (n) in a particular area is required.

Based on the advice of Pelletier and Frongillo (2003) that R has a standard error of about 40%, lower and upper bounds for both M2 and L are calculated using values for R that are 40% lower and higher than for the estimate (0.015 and 0.035, respectively).

For more information on the method you may check out the following publication by clicking here.

The FANTA project funded the modeling of the underweight model.

 

See Also: the Iron Deficiency Anemia calculator